http://carmelgroup.com/ en robbhawkins@gmail.com Copyright 2008 2008-04-04T15:48:00-08:00 http://carmelgroup.com/publications/document/digital_video_recorders_time_in_a_magical_box_present_trends_future_project/ This comprehensive 2007 study is the product of three of The Carmel Group’s in-house databases. First is The Carmel Group’s historical archive, dating back to 1997-1998, when The Carmel Group was the first consultant/analyst globally to produce industry projections concerning the U.S. Digital Video Recorder (DVR) industry. Second is the combined historical data compiled from two surveys conducted in 2005 and 2006. The data collected by The Carmel Group in May 2005 was based upon surveys of 2,586 U.S. respondents; the 2006 data collected by The Carmel Group was based upon surveys of nearly 1,800 U.S. respondents in January and February of that year. And finally, we focus on the current data from almost 2,200 U.S. respondents, from our 2007 survey that was run during February-March 2007. In both the 2006 and 2007 surveys covering the DVR and related industries, 76% were identified as DVR-Users, while 24% were Non DVR-Users. Also, in both those years, The Carmel Group received responses from respondents representing every state of the union and several U.S. territories. In addition, The Carmel Group interviewed dozens of key industry participants, focused on the developers and manufacturers of existing DVR products and services. White Papers & Studies 2007-07-17T12:27:01-08:00 http://carmelgroup.com/publications/document/what_can_the_fcc_do_now_with_the_sirius_xm_mess/ Many, if not most, who I consulted with through the many months leading to the March 24, 2008, U.S. Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Sirius-XM merger-to-monopoly decision, believed it would favor the merger. But just about everyone was nonplussed by the form it took. This is because not only were there no conditions, caveats, or concerns expressed, but the rationale used to justify it was just plain bizarre. Indeed, this satellite radio decision gives new (and derisive) meaning to the words “monopoly,” “competition” and “antitrust regulation” in America. Publication Link 2008-04-04T14:48:00-08:00 http://carmelgroup.com/publications/document/cablecasters_capturing_digital_signage_giving_consumers_relevance/ Chaotic change -- to the tune of billions of dollars -- is rapidly churning the troubled waters of advertising, retail marketing, cablecasting and broadcasting. It is also churning the traditional relationships between the ad side and the operational/telecast side of these industries. Yet, as the rather trite (but true) old adage “where one door closes, another opens” conveys, these players must begin wedding their businesses to digital signage in order to better survive in the Brave New World of Giving Consumers Relevance. Articles 2008-02-15T18:41:01-08:00 http://carmelgroup.com/publications/document/does_the_lack_of_inter_operable_radios_mean_less_competition_and_monopoly_p/ Recently, as it relates to arguments that apparently support the proposed merger of Sirius Satellite Radio (Sirius) and XM Satellite Radio (XM), a strange message has entered the public forum: because Sirius and XM never met their obligation to develop radio receivers that could receive both services (i.e., the so-called inter-operable satellite radios), there is inadequate competition between Sirius and XM to support the government’s antitrust opposition. This non-sequitur attempts to further break the universe of current subscribers and would-be subscribers into two distinct and separate bodies of satellite radio subscribers. Acknowledging that strong competition exists between Sirius and XM for new (i.e. would-be) subscribers, this odd argument instead focuses on current satellite radio subscribers. White Papers & Studies 2008-02-13T17:12:00-08:00 http://carmelgroup.com/publications/document/the_2_buck_chuck_test/ In another take on the pending merger between XM and Sirius, Jimmy Schaeffler of the Carmel Group offers this commentary, titled “The 2-Buck Chuck Test.” Articles 2008-01-22T16:13:00-08:00 http://carmelgroup.com/publications/document/broadcasters_and_digital_signage_a_new_business_model1/ Since the advent and mass deployment of flat-panel plasma and LCD monitors just a few years ago, the new application and technology called digital signage has developed great new legs. Estimates of these types of screens being used for the many forms of digital signage in the U.S. as of early 2008 are at almost 500,000. Industry researcher, The Carmel Group, estimates revenues of more than $2.5 billion by year-end 2010. Yet, there is a good chance that the real stride in those legs will develop only if North America’s broadcasters join the small band of local operators that are today making digital signage a part of their overall business model. These would include broadcasters such as Capitol Broadcasting’s Jim Goodmon, whose company, Microspace, began focusing on digital signage in 1994, in the form of digital signage kiosks. Articles 2008-01-03T00:36:00-08:00 http://carmelgroup.com/publications/document/broadcasters_and_digital_signage_a_new_business_model/ Since the advent and mass deployment of flat-panel plasma and LCD monitors just a few years ago, the new application and technology called digital signage has developed great new legs. 2008-01-02T20:18:00-08:00 http://carmelgroup.com/publications/document/competition_belied_opposition_to_the_proposed_sirius_xm_merger/ The two multi-page charts below were created by The Carmel Group in October 2007, eight months following the mid-February 2007 announcement of the proposed merger by the two U.S. satellite radio duopolists, Sirius Satellite Radio (Sirius) and XM Satellite Radio (XM). These two charts indicate clearly and in great detail both 1) the direct competition that exists between Sirius and XM, and 2) the true lack of competition that exists between these two players and the rest of the radio marketplace. White Papers & Studies, Satellite, Publication Link 2007-10-26T05:44:00-08:00 http://carmelgroup.com/publications/document/north_american_free_to_air_set_top_boxes_its_a_big_biz/ In the more than three years since April 2004, when Rupert Murdoch shut down the more than two mil. pirates attacking his newly-acquired DirecTV, the DirecTV system has remained “hack free” (which is another way of saying no one has yet found a way to break into the system that secures the DirecTV boxes and signals). Yet, like water that flows into and eventually around a dam, that most-effective 2Q 2004 DirecTV shut down was the bane of rival EchoStar, because it meant pirate resources were consequently shifted from DirecTV to the now more vulnerable DISH Network. Since 2004, there has been a large expansion in the number of pirates that target the Digital Broadcast Video (DVB) set-top box standard that supports the DISH Network programming. These pirates use the so-called Free-To-Air (FTA) set-top boxes to view, for free, subscription TV services for which the overwhelming majority of normal, legal DISH Network subscribers pay monthly. FTA pirates tapping into the 13 mil. legal subscriber DISH Network, as well as into the 2.3 mil. legal subscriber Bell ExpressVu (BEV) system (which is the Canadian satellite operator that uses the conditional access system supplied by the EchoStar and Nagra joint venture company, called NagraStar), have now distributed their illegal services and products to an estimated two million illegal TV Households (TVHHs) in the U.S. and Canada, at an average hardware unit price of around $200, accounting for almost $350 mil. in total cumulative revenues. (See chart, below). The top three distributors of FTA devices for the EchoStar and BEV systems are, in order, Sun Valley, CA-based PanSat; South San Francisco, CA-based Coolsat; and Mississauga, ON, Canada-based Fortec. Among just these top three FTA providers, they have already distributed an estimated 1.385 mil. units, representing sales of well over $200 mil. in estimated cumulative revenues since 2004. The Carmel Group believes that the top eight FTA manufacturer/distributors listed in the chart below account for three-quarters of the FTA business in North America. In short, FTA today in North America is big business. Take the NFL Sunday Ticket that is carried on BEV in Canada, and the level of hacking is even more disturbing. Articles, Blog, Satellite, Press 2007-07-22T23:30:00-08:00 http://carmelgroup.com/publications/document/higher_prices_less_content_and_a_monopoly_good_for_the_consumer/ Presently, the U.S. satellite radio duopoly of New York City-based Sirius Satellite Radio 1 and Washington, DC-based XM Satellite Radio 2 are attempting to “merge” into a single satellite radio monopoly service and product. White Papers & Studies, Satellite, Wireless, Advanced Services 2007-04-06T17:41:00-08:00