Any purchase would be expected to get close scrutiny from regulators, following their decision to block EchoStar’s $26 billion bid for DirecTV.
But Jimmy Schaeffler, senior research analyst at the Carmel Group, said the potential teaming of EchoStar and Liberty “presages the combination” of the two satellite-TV operators.
He said that over time there’s an “increased likelihood” a merger would pass regulatory muster. Why?
Schaeffler pointed to telephone companies - such as Qwest, AT&T and Verizon - “and the development of their competitive (TV) services nationwide.” Those services compete with EchoStar and DirecTV.
The transaction will have implications for Charlie Ergen’s EchoStar, Liberty’s neighbor and DirecTV’s rival. A Liberty-controlled DirecTV would be far more likely to receive regulatory approval of a merger with EchoStar, said Jimmy Schaeffler, analyst at The Carmel Group.
He predicts such a move will happen within the next three to five years as telephone companies such as AT&T and Verizon ramp up their video services, providing a third competitor in the pay-TV market.
DirecTV is headquartered in El Segundo, Calif., but it has a large presence in Denver. A 1,000-employee customer service center is slated to open early next year in Arapahoe County, and another 400 employees already are here. Liberty has a reputation as a hands-off manager, but “it makes a lot of sense” for DirecTV to move its operations closer to Liberty’s headquarters, Schaeffler said.
“It would bring Denver that much closer to being the real multichannel center of the pay-TV universe.”
Jimmy Schaeffler, chairman of research firm the Carmel Group, estimates that about 600,000 of EchoStar’s 12.8 million subscribers might be affected by the distant network shutdown. How many of them will switch to larger rival DirecTV isn’t known, but those who do leave will be difficult for EchoStar to win back.
"There’s no one who has the extent of satellite and cable experience that he has,” said Jimmy Schaeffler, senior research analyst at The Carmel Group. “Carl sets up an extremely unique opportunity if EchoStar has the willingness to use it.”
A merger between EchoStar and DirecTV - regardless of who owns it - is unlikely to happen soon, considering that Federal Communications Commission Chairman Kevin Martin last week said there aren’t enough other pay-TV competitors to justify a merger between the nation’s two biggest satellite-TV providers.
That might change in several years after phone companies enter the fray with their own video services while cable companies continue to pick off subscribers, Schaeffler said.
“They would be foolish not to be talking about” a merger, he said. “The key is the growth of the telecom, which is a two-edged sword for EchoStar. They have to cede subscribers and growth in order to help create” an environment where such a merger would be approved
"When you lose 11 million subscribers, your place on the board shifts dramatically,” said Jimmy Schaeffler, senior research analyst at The Carmel Group. “When you gain back those 11 million plus another 4.5 million, you once again become an instant kingpin.”
“DirecTV isn’t the asset it was two or three or four years ago,” Schaeffler said. “Unless and until they get a triple play they control, DirecTV will remain at the mercy of the cable companies and the telcos.”
Football is “the holy grail of sports programming,” said Jimmy Schaeffler, chairman of cable research firm The Carmel Group. “Customers will switch because of it.”
"In a way, I was disappointed that they didn’t get to run the company” as a stand-alone, said Jimmy Schaeffler, chairman of cable consulting firm The Carmel Group. “They did a great job.”
Because EchoStar is selling someone else’s DSL service, it won’t have the pricing flexibility that cable and phone companies have. Jimmy Schaeffler, chairman of research firm The Carmel Group, said WildBlue and GetConnected announcements are a “midterm filler” for EchoStar’s lack of a broadband offering. “They still need to find a better answer going forward.”
Carmel Group analyst Jimmy Schaeffler, who previously practiced law, predicted EchoStar will face an uphill battle on appeal. “Appellate courts don’t like overturning lower court decisions,” said Schaeffler, noting the judge in the case as well as the particular Texas jurisdiction “know patent law.” “You’ve got a jury that came back in two hours with a verdict,” Schaeffler added. “What does that tell you?”
"EchoStar made a good gamble by developing its own DVR technology in spite of this verdict” in terms of the payoff in customer growth and retention, said Jimmy Schaeffler, an analyst with consulting firm The Carmel Group.
Neuman “had a very good ability to articulate the company’s message,” said Jimmy Schaeffler, head of consulting firm the Carmel Group. “In order to be most effective, Charlie needs help in that position and this sets up a vacuum that isn’t likely to be filled soon.”
"They have to play in this bundled game because customers like to write only one check rather than three,” said Jimmy Schaeffler, a consultant with Carmel Group, who said he expects Dish to make an announcement within months.
Dish is well aware that if it “accedes” to any significant rate hikes, the other 178 channels carried by the service will demand similar terms, said Jimmy Schaeffler, an analyst with the Carmel Group.
